second, wait a second, romney-ryan, romney-ryan. >> cenk: oh, that's painful. and first of all the denies of reality are fantastic. second of all racism. wow, i didn't see that coming. we'll show you what we're talking about. and later in the program, it is okay to deface property if it is about hate speech. >> what are you doing? >> i do. >> you are under arrest. >> for what? >> joy: and our bacon is in jeopardy. i'm going to tell you about that on the show too. i can't have it! go time! [♪ theme music ♪] >> cenk: now you know i love

predictions on this show. i went pretty far 12 days ago. here is what i said. having said that it is no longer even, it's nowhere near even. right now if nothing changes it is not going to be close. it's going to be a landslide, and at this point, i'll even go further. he doesn't need a game changer anymore, . he needs a miracle. and now i'm about to go further. a minor miracle will no longer do it. so barring a major miracle, i'm calling the election right now. it's already over. i know a lot of you are thinking don't jinx it. jinxes are for another thing. but in reality i'll show you why this thing is already over. how is mitt romney doing in running a campaign. look at these numbers 61% saying

he is doing a poor job, unfavorable, 35% favorable. this number tells you, the way you run your campaign is a disaster. and that's not just democrats and independents, that's even republicans saying, jesus what are you doing? all right. we're just getting warmed up. let's go to the 47% comments. about how he doesn't care about 47% of the country are going to hurt him big time. he was already massively down in the polls 12 days ago. and i said wait until you get aload of this polls after the 47-% remark. when asked about it 54% of the country viewed him unfavorable. then in florida, show me that number again. how many are you familiar with the marks, 89%. so everybody heard it. but in a critical state like

florida. but it is like this all over the country. everybody heard it. 58% think that it was an inappropriate comment -- this is independents in florida -- and 37% think it was appropriate. again, that's a giant 21-point difference, so if you have got that kind of difference and independents hate what you said on top of the fact that you were already doing poorly you are going to be in big, big trouble. what does that lead to. here is the latest poll in florida overall, 53-44. 53-44. there isn't that much time left. romney is losing florida, which he absolutely positively needs by nine points. look if you are not familiar with politics -- this is why i'm doing this so you understand. nine points is not a little. that's a giant lead.

that's not going to change overnight. he is in big trouble. it's not even trouble. you are not going to make up nine points. not in a regular election or any election i have seen. if it was just florida you would say that's one thing. let's look at pennsylvania. 12 points over. i have never seen somebody come back from 12 points in this limited of time. gone, pennsylvania is off of the board. ohio boy. are you kidding me. republicans can't win without ohio. i'll tell you the specifics about that in a second. 53-43. you can't win if you are mitt romney. it is a ten-point lead. i'm trying to impress upon you, ten-point lead is not a little. it's gigantic. all right. we're not done yet. now why did he get creamed in

ohio? well, for many different reasons. frank luntz who is the republican pollster pushes this one ad of priorities usa ran. look at how devastating this ad is. >> out of the blue one day we were told to build a 30-foot stage, rather the guys, and we built that 30-foot stage, not knowing what it was for. days later, all three shifts were told to assemble in the warehouse, a group of people walked out on that stage, and told us that the plant is now closed and all of you are fired. mitt romney made over $100 million by shutting down our plant. turns out, that when we built that stage, it was like building my own coffin. >> cenk: damn! god that's howerful!

in ohio they are blue collared they see an ad like that and it is in the words of frank lund devastating, devastating. now you lose ohio let me show you how devastating that is. ohio voters have directly picked the winning presidential candidate in the last 11 elections. but it gets better no republican has ever won an election without winning ohio. he is down by ten. we don't have that much time left to go. tick tock tick tock. this thing is over. all right. how about female voters. look at these gigantic leads. florida, ohio, pennsylvania, how about male voters? "politico" did an article about that. they talked to a guy they love. he was just recently [ inaudible ] to the gop.

but here is what he said again, talking about that 47% comment that romney made saying i don't care about 47% of the country. bob said quote, what i took away is . . . when you lose guys like that and "politico" writes about how he might be in danger of losing white males. who do you have left? you already lost african-americans, latinos, women, if you lose the white males, who are you going to get to vote for you? this is bad, really bad. it gets worse. now in the "new york times," craig robinson former director of the republican party in iowa

said the election has gotten so bad, let me give you the quote -- i hate to say this but if ryan wants to run for national ryan office again, he will probably have to wash the stren. -- stench of romney off of him. god, that's unreal! this is where it gets wonderfully awkward. mitt romney and paul ryan are at a rally. the crowd is chanting for ryan and romney tries to get them to chant for him too. watch this. [ cheers and applause ] >> woi! that's quite a guy, isn't it? paul ryan that's something. wait a second romney/ryan! romney/ryan! there we go. all right. that's great. thank you. >> cenk: oh jesus, chanted that. that was awesomely awkward. let me give you one final piece

of context. the candidate leading two or three weeks following the convention has gone on to win every modern presidential election every one of them over the last 15 presidential elections. we are two or three weeks from the last convention. in fact there is only 41 days left. that's it. you are not going to make up leads like that in ohio pennsylvania florida, states that you desperately need. barring a major miracle, not a game changer, not two game changers, maybe not even three game changers, barring a major miracle this thing is already over. everybody is going to tell you all of these things because they want you to keep watching, and of course you have to vote. if you don't vote, of course you will lose. but the reality is, as the match up goes, i'm a betting man, i

know when i have lost or won a game, and in this case, mitt romney has loss. all right. now when we come back they are going to try to counterattack, because they are desperate, understandably so. and. and what are they going to use? denial and racism. >> this president in my opinion is absolutely lazy, and detached from his job. ♪ >> cenk: gee i wonder what he is talking about? we'll have more examples when we come back. and then

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>> cenk: so as we just explained romney is down dramatically in the polls. 12 in pennsylvania 10 in ohio, 9 in florida. he is down, and i think he is out. apparently a lot of republicans agree with me because they are in a panic. so they have three desperate counterattacks. one of them is flat out denighal. i think these polls understate romney's support. >> i don't believe the polls really matter until the debates begin. >> i think the first time we should look at the polls in all sincerity is after the debates. >> i just don't describe to him

getting blown out. >> cenk: no way, it is not going to happen. such a republican thing to do, but who is the master of denying reality? here comes dick morris. >> he is at the moment in a very strong position. if the election were held today, romney would win by four or five points. i believe he would carry florida, ohio virginia, nevada. pennsylvania -- >> oh come on. >> pennsylvania, and i believe he would be competitive in michigan. >> cenk: you know you really have to be crazy for hannity to go come on. this is now being called pole trutherism. and i love what our own michael shure started. he started a hashtag called dick morris predictions. no one will even notice that the nfl is even using replacement reps.

he is already catching on fire. i love it. another way that they go here with the counterattacks is mitt romney doing an on-air ad. when you see the actual candidate in the ad, you know he is in a little bit of trouble. why? because they don't normally go in that direction. he is trying to do a personal appeal. here is mitt romney trying. >> romney: president obama and i both care about poor and middle class families, the difference is my policies will make things better for them. we shouldn't measure compassion by how many people are on welfare. we should measure compassion by how many people are able to get off of welfare and get a better job. >> cenk: problem number 2 if you have to start your ad by talking about how great your opponent is, you are in trouble. >> i'm not a witch.

i'm nothing you have heard. i'm you. i'll go to washington, and do what you would do. i'm christine o'donnell, and i approve this message. >> cenk: on-camera ads are really dicey. what is point number 3? when you are at the bottom of the barrel how do you go below the bottom of the barrel? you go to implied and obvious racism. watch this. >> let me tell you what the big problem with this president is in my opinion. he is absolutely lazy, and detached from his job. >> cenk: okay. lazy black guy. now if it's just sununu, you might say it's just sununu. i don't remember him calling bush that.

george w. bush with 1,020 vacation days obama with 78. and it's not just john sununu. here is newt gingrich to make it very, very clear. >> i'm assuming there's some rhythm to barack obama that the rest of us don't understand. whether he needs large amounts of rest whether he needs to go play basketball for a while, i don't watch espn -- i don't quite know what his rhythms are. he is not a real president. >> cenk: play basketball. he doesn't work hard enough. i don't know what his rhythm is. come on newt just say it. i don't know if you know this fox news but he is black! yeah newt i have news for you. they know. and now you didn't need a political man just as epic to try to solve it for the

republicans, right? ♪ all right michael shure first of all do you think i have gone overboard in calling the election? >> i'm of two schools of thought about that. i think you are not overboard. i think everything we are lead to believe right now shows a floundering romney. i spent a lot of time trying to figure out what he can possibly do to win, and i don't see anyplace. and even if the president makes a mistake and sort of self devastates, it still isn't going to make a difference. i would put a ton of resources in iowa and go to nevada and colorado and see what you can

do. but there's no bright spot for mitt romney right now. >> cenk: that's exactly their problem. they are already at the bottom. what are you going to do? that's why they go to basketball and lazy, and that's not going to work. >> no. and the guy has been running for president now for 21 months -- and seven years on top of that. they know him and they don't like him. newt gingrich was saying obama is not a real president. i don't know what newt gingrich is. he is not even a real nominee. >> cenk: and the entire republican party is in trouble. tommy thompson is running for senate in wisconsin, and he accidentally admits what their real plans are.

watch. >> who better than me [ inaudible ] . . . >> cenk: there he is saying i'm going to do away. who better than me than to do away with medicare and medicaid. >> yeah and these people are getting caught on tape. they are getting caught being who they are. and romney is doing it. tommy thompson is doing it. you are going to say that to seniors in wisconsin. >> cenk: and sharon brown, up by 12. >> i have to tell you, one of the reasons that democrats want this race to stay close is they want the people not to think the race is over. because they need democrats to come out in senate races. if the race is seen as over that is going to create a lot of lackadaisical voters.

>> cenk: when we do political analysis, we have to be objective about it. don't say, hey, hey, hey. i want the democrats to win, so cenk, michael don't say that. right. we give you some opinion, but when we're doing analysis that's as objective as we can get. and i have called it the other way against democrats all the time in the last 17 years. when we come back we're going to have a little bit of a supreme court.

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>> cenk: all right. as you can tell the court is in session. i have all of my rowdy friends here. michael shure joins us ana kasparian is here. guys first question is about a pepper spray situation at uc davis. you remember this? >> cenk: every time i see that. i think that's crazy, i didn't believe he did that. now the settlement is for a million dollars. 21 students that have already been identified are going to get $30,000 apiece. overall it cost the university system $2 million to investigate, do the report and pay the settlement. so come on -- everybody -- i don't know about you guys. minute i saw it i thought this

question. would you get pepper sprayed for $30,000 in the face? ana? >> i'm going to go with yes. that wasn't normal pepper spray, though. it was like a pepper stray hose. >> the wagner power -- >> yeah. is it going to do something to my vision -- if it does do permanent damage then no. >> you asked the question of the late rodney king. you said let's get serious. for 3.1 million rodney king said no then 30 k seems like it is within reason. >> cenk: obviously, it was terrible what he did, and i'm glad that they sent a message.

a with king his eyeball was out of his head. >> i would get more satisfaction of seeing that police officer go to jail for a long time. >> cenk: and he was fired. >> they took a stand for what they believe in. >> cenk: so you would do it -- >> no i want my $30,000. >> cenk: where is the principal in that? >> i want both. >> cenk: first i'm serious, all over we're unanimous. $30,000 is a lot of money. those kids didn't know they were going to get that. but sometimes people complain it's too much. it's not too much. you need to send a message, which is you can't do this to people exercising their first

amendment rights. second issue is this pamela gellar ad that went up in new york. they are unbelievable. in any world between the civilized man and the salve rage support the civilized world and defeat jahad. and this incredibly strange interactions happened between this woman and one of gellar's supporters. as she was trying to paint the actual ad in the new york subway system. >> so mona do you think you have right to do that? >> i do. this is freedom of expression. >> do you really? >> i do. yes, and who are you? >> cenk: let's open that up, jayar right or wrong? >> it is one of those things

where she shouldn't have because of that aspect but she should have because you have the right to say and do things that you want to. you have to be willing for that part to come and thing you are bringing at attention to the issue. >> cenk: right, in essence michael why is that civil disobesence? >> well it is graffiti too. >> i feel like you should do it just don't get caught. [ laughter ] >> she drew at attention to it she let people know via twitter that she was going to do it. and the entire interaction seemed extremely staged.

>> cenk: watch this. >> [ inaudible ]. mona eleahawy is being arrested. >> cenk: that's not going to work. she just spelled the longest egypt/american name in history. >> yeah and not only that but make sure you check me out on facebook and her is my blog. [ laughter ] >> it shows how times have changed, though. yeah, they were bringing at attention to it that way in the 60s. now it's twitter, facebook, and it seems self promotional, but we'll see what she was saying. >> michael you are saying she brought at attention to it so it's a win. >> guilty of graffiti -- >> cenk: we all agree on that.

>> it went over the sign on to the tile, but definitely -- >> i didn't like her strategy. i think it turned into a circus as opposed to talking about the issue. what did it really accomplish? people were talking about the pam gellar ads in the first place. >> you pay to put up something -- think about it -- >> cenk: i know but a court ruled on that that it was permissible first amendment -- >> lower courts than ours. >> cenk: yeah. we have a 2-1 win for mona saying she shouldn't have done it. all right. now one last quick thing for you guys. mitt romney -- buzzfeed found a tape of him from 2006. let's share it. >> romney: interestingly, sexually active teenage boys are

twice as likely to be depressed and almost ten times as likely to attempt suicide than boys who wait until they are older. >> cenk: to me if you are not sexually active as a teenage boy you would be much more depressed. >> yeah, you would be like i got some last night. [ laughter ] >> cenk: it is the same from girls? >> women -- or i should say girl are morelikely to suffer because of it, because of the social ramifications. >> cenk: yeah, it's not like a lot of guys are like i got laid last night. and everybody is like oh sorry. >> yeah, a lot of guys like to get spun where they get caught

up in a girl and then they lose her. >> cenk: i hear you. when i was 15 or 16 i would have taken my chances on that. all right. thank you guys. when we come back we have got terrorism -- yeah. okay. [ laughter ] >> cenk: now this is really interesting, because the republicans might be on to something here it's a very rare situation where they might be slightly right. >> it was a preplanned act of terrorism on 9/11 and the fact that the administration was still double miles you can "actually" use. but with those single mile travel cards... [ bridesmaid ] blacked out... but i'm a bridesmaid. oh! "x" marks the spot she'll never sit. but i bought a dress! a toast... ...to the capital one venture card. fly any airline, any flight, anytime. double miles you can actually use.

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>> cenk: now as everybody knows our ambassador was attacked on september 11th and he was killed along with three other americans. the reporting on that is really

really interesting. first nbc reported this. >> u.s. officials say the benghazi attack was too sophisticated to be spontaneous. >> cenk: all right. government officials saying that. but on september 16th susan rice went on talk shows and had a different story, watch. >> soon after that spontaneous protest began outside of our consulate in benghazi. we believe it looks like extremist elements individuals joined in testify that fort with heavy weapons, and it spun from there into something much much more violent. >> cenk: so she appears to be saying not necessarily a terrorist attack. it spun out of control. that looked questionable right from the get-go and jay carney

on september 20th came out and said it is i think, self-evident

up in smoke? a catastrophically embarrassing way. to lose an entire consulate, and basically be run out of town and we have learned that there were at least two dozen cia agents also in benghazi. so there was a huge loss of our intelligence out there as well. so those two things are the main reason why i think they have been trying to paper it over. and the final point, al quada. we were told that all of the fierce were overblown, and now we have people saying al-qaeda was involved. and then you have questions, who armed al-qaeda? was this part of the resistance?

can alchi take over benghazi. >> cenk: there is no question there is an irony of the republicans saying someone was not prepared enough on 9/11. but in this case it does look like they were trying to cover their tracks. when you ask state department officials about a notebook that had been recovered from the ambassador they had a very harsh response to you. let me share with the audience . . . this is what they were addressing to michael. and it continues how is that for a non-bs response. now that we have gotten that out of our systems, have a good day, and by that i mean f off.

>> yeah, i work with you guys so you know he was right on point on that one. i got home from work and said honey i'm home and she responded how is my unmitigated expletive doing? but this is why that exchange happened. i take this stuff very seriously, the gentlemen i was emailing with is basically hilary clinton's spokesperson. they are in damage-control mode and i asked pretty poignant questions about what really went down. and what -- what -- this reporter at cnn has found the ambassador's diary four days later, laying around this compound picked up the diary, got the diary to the family, but

used two very relevant portions of it in their reporting, and the state department called it disgusting. i called it good journalism. and that's where this came from. >> cenk: all right. it looks like the state department is overly touchy about this for political reasons. >> and the state has backed down -- the guy gave a statement to the "washington post" and said he shouldn't have said what he said to me. >> cenk: all right. michael hastings thank you for joining us. when we come back, war on drugs. we're going to talk about what an unmitigated disaster that is. >> what will you do when someone offers you drugs? >> just say no! >> the d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d

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>> cenk: the director has now made a movie about our war on drugs, and the massive incarceration of african-americans. take a look at the clip here. >> i don't think people fully understand in the inner city these kids are making rational choices. i profiled a girl who was like this. a 10 year old girl. the minute she steps out her front doorway, there are drug dealers out there. no economic opportunity. the school is warehousing her. how is she supposed to get out? >> cenk: i talked to him about that and i said do you think anyone is winning the war on

drugs. >> you have find a lot of people employed by our system of incarceration, but even in those cases, the people i talk to you can't believe how often they said to me of course i know this isn't working, but until further notice it's the way we are doing things. >> cenk: so why are the forces that propel this obvious failure of society? >> it is the same forces that are propelling the other elements of our lives. we live in a class gap unprecedenteded in human history, and that says an incredibly powerful set of special interests call the shots in this country in every walk of life. >> cenk: who is profitting from the drug war? >> the profiteering arm of what the politicians are doing by

profiting themselves. saying you tough on crime gets you elected and helps you stay elected because you scare the public into voting for you. but that also helps your for instance by having jobs come to your district and expand and expand and expand. >> cenk: i have seen reports that some beer companies are funded groups that are trying to stop the legalization of marijuana. there are other drug rehab companies in colorado fighting against the legalizing, et cetera. but it is mainly the prison industrial complex? >> sure, the ones you are pointing to there are those interesting side stories, but the real story here is that major organizations in this company, these corporations depend upon a steady flow of our fellow human beings coming into these beds. he said it almost becomes a self

fulfilling prophesy you build a bed, you fill a bed. and basically they punish the non-violent for sentences we once reserved for the violent. >> cenk: so -- and the politicians of course are motivated to do this because they get funding from people like corporations that -- imprison people so we understand that. and unfortunately that money in politics has poisoned everything in our system. do you think there's also a racial component to the war on drugs? >> the history of the war on drugs is a history on racism. i learned the first drug laws in america were used to target chinese immigrants who were coming into this country to help build the railroads. so we passed opiate laws.

it turns out at the time we started putting chinese people away in droves for open um use then we moved on to the mexicans, and turned hemp which was a beloved crop in american that the forefathers grew we turned into it to marijuana so we could mexicanize it. so chapter by chapter we have seen it lead us to the present. >> cenk: it's fascinating. and washington and jefferson grew hemp on their farms. >> sure. today washington and jefferson would be serving ten to 40. >> cenk: that's fascinating. some charge this is a new form of jim crow. do you agree with that?

>> sure. for the masses of black people in this country the leading indicator suggests a situation that is a dire regression. you look today for example, we have more african-americans today in one form of incarceration or in prison control, whether it's parole on probation, et cetera we have more people in that condition than we had in slavery before the civil war began. when you have that kind of statistic staring you in the face, you have to look at it like did we pass by jim crow are or letting it slip back into our lives. >> cenk: that's a powerful documentary about our insane war on drugs. we are never going to win it it was racist to begin with and let alone the damage it does to all races.

in mexico alone since 2006 60,000 people have been killed in the war on drugs. eliot spitzer what do you have for us on "viewpoint." >> we have sheila bear who's blockbuster book is really turning heads. not a pretty picture for a lot of the wall street executives. tim geithner really takes it on the chin. fascinating book. she will be here. and then shari blare, absolutely charming. great lawyer former judge, running a foundation that does great stuff for women around the world. fun interesting conversation. >> sheila bear is one of the heros that did the right thing. >> indeed she do. >> cenk: looking forward to it elliot, thank you.

>> thank you. >> cenk: when we come back we're going to do

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>> cenk: we no climate change has had devastating results, but this one might hit home. we're going to lose 10% production in europe and 1.3% reduction in u.s. of our bacon. our bacon. climate change! don't do it to him! oh, there it is! the oil companies ruining our bacon! and oil subsidies are always involved, but poor harvest is a huge part of the reason why. overall gdp we are losing. in 2011 we lost 1.6% of gdp because of climate change.

and up to 10% will be lost by 2100. that is devastating. so in the middle of the ring unfortunately is the earth. no, don't do it, oil companies! what are you doing? it isn't righghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghghgh >> joy: on tonight's show i'll talk to true ground breakers. all giants in their own right, although i think tim is actually 4'1". that's next on "say anything." ♪ >> joy: as you may have heard, possibly, president and mrs. obama sat down for